Market trends and housing reports around North Atlanta

The grizzled crusty veterans feel it and the questions are starting...is the Atlanta real estate market shifting? Has the move away from historic inventory shortages and home buyer frustration finally started? That argument can be made...and while the data lags by several weeks, the radar of many experienced agents is lit. The feeling in the field can't always be immediately confirmed but we're beginning to see the data evidence. It'll take a few more months as markets always tend to "feel" before the "proof"; that's just a challenge of the business. One thing that's not debated, the mortgage rate increases (with more promised) have been an ice bucket challenge to the market.

But first -it bears repeating that "the Atlanta market" is not a monolith; it…

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Early 2022 is in the rear view and we can now look back at the Greater Atlanta housing report for the first qtr of 2022. Best not to stare too long into the data, not many folks like what they see. Sure, sellers continue to hold the aces...until it's time to become a buyer. Sure, inventory has to increase as it can't get any tighter...yet it did. Sure, at least rates are great...oh wait. Well now that we're past lock downs, spring break and Easter, surely we'll get back into the "typical" cycles...we'll soon find out. Obviously, the point is that despite forecasting and prognostication, the only things we know are that rates are blasting higher and buyers continue to be pounded.

So let's have a basic and broad look at the great Atlanta housing report…

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April breaks over Georgia and the pencil necked geeks hike up their socks and tape up their glasses. It's time to answer the nagging question…did freddy blassy wrestlerhousing inventory in Atlanta increase during the first quarter of 2022? Well that answer is more than a yes/no binary option, context is needed and that’s best done by looking back a bit. The first quarter of any year around Atlanta tends to set up the second one. Traditionally, the months of May and June see the most new listings as the school cycle hits – graduating families sell and rising families buy. This year however, rocketing mortgage rates and other economic challenges may change that.

The charts below focus on key indicators; number of listings, number of sales, days on market and sale to list…

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Want a sobering fun fact? A 1% mortgage rate increase cuts home buyer affordability between 10%-11%. In January, Timmy had a very nicetimmy and lassie $450K home in his sights but was annoyed with the price and having to compete with other buyers. He lost it. He then found two more solid fits at $465K and $445K, liked them and felt his offers were right on target. Losing both, he decided to wait for the "spring" market because he knows that prices will come down as inventory increases. While waiting, his mortgage rate went from 3.35% to 4.72%; a whiplash rise of 1.37% and one that forced Timmy's budget to decrease between $65K-$75K. Timmy waits; chin in hand with Lassie who is beyond pissed with him for blowing several good opportunities. "Surely the spring market will…

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climbing a rock wallIt’s hard to find a housing market not presently on fire, Atlanta is no different. Compared to a decade ago and the worst housing crisis ever, this market turn around improvement is among the tops in the country. The 2022 market could not be more different than the 2010-12 market...over 100K homes were on the market during the darkest days. The Atlanta real estate market explosion is due in large part to its broad appeal, size and vast selection of properties. The “Atlanta Real Estate market” is a misnomer; the area is akin to spilled glass of milk. With no natural boundaries, it sprawls over 8 to 16 counties depending on who sources the information. Each area is its own micro market but all contribute to the overall "Atlanta housing market".

The…

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Much of the nation spent the last two years holed up, staring at the TV waiting for instructions from Anthony Fauci. Meanwhile, the Atlanta real 60 Billion Housing Grab by Wall Street - Info graph New York Times Magazineestate market exploded and subtle fundamental changes began to appear. Zillow crashed in spectacular fashion, other iBuyers dabbled grew their presence a bit more and institutional investors decided they really love homes. Atlanta has always been an investor darling, but over the last couple of years, activity has exponentially increased. "They" know something...Wall Street is far ahead of the real estate curve and what they anticipate seems to be coming into focus. They're on a massive buying spree and tightening the chokehold; the impact on home buyers, especially in the Atlanta market, is brutal. Their…

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Although it’s become all too common to hear “…once in a lifetime” or “…once is a hundred years”; the 2020 market and most aspects of the 2021 real estate market could be described in those ways. No one anticipated the impact of Covid and the subsequent impact of billions in government subsidies. But now the brakes are being applied and economists wonder, what will the 2022 Atlanta real estate market look like? Something has to give...or maybe not. At this point in the '22 market (Mid Feb), nothing has changed. In fact, the tempo has increased ahead of rising mortgage rates, which are already a point higher than last year at this time. Just a month ago, we posted that home buyers will be frustrated, that's largely confirmed at this point.

Despite the…

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The curtain fell on 2021 and the housing market report for greater Atlanta can be succinctly summed up; crazy. In addition the last quarter being traditionally slow, the big influences on the market were inflation levels unseen in 40 yrs, supply chain shortages, labor issues and of course the rise and run of the omicron covid variant. That is best described as an endemic; like the flu it's evident that the covid situation isn't going anywhere. So despite all of that, we did have a 4th qtr housing market report for Atlanta and it read much the same as the rest of 2021; record low inventory and frustrated buyers.  What lies ahead for 2022? Well we know rising rates; as this is written in mid Jan, rates are already up from a few weeks ago and they will…

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It’s with a MASSIVE dose of “we think” that we offer our latest opinions (12/16/21) for the first quarter of the 2022 North Atlanta real estate market. It's not a rosy outlook; expect home buyer frustration to increase in 2022. Rates are likely to increase as the Fed just responded to the record high inflation, planning at least three rate bumps for 2022. The prognosticators are out there already making bold claims; you can find the overt optimists and you can find the dark pessimists. So what's in store for home buyers and sellers that have to make a move this spring? Well given this environment, we’re not going to look much past the first quarter or so. Buyers will again be challenged and sellers will reap the reward…until they become buyers. As usual,…

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Trying to predict any market; stock, bond, mortgage, real estate or other type is a measured guess at best. Toss in a global pandemic, global supply chain issues along with global inflation and the challenge is exacerbated. But in this maelstrom comes a confident 2022 housing market forecast from Goldman Sachs; they predict home prices will appreciate 16% during 2022.

In 2019 the housing market found its legs and combined with a historically strong economy and low rates, the housing market caught fire. The pandemic slammed on the brakes, but by mid ’20 things inexplicably exploded. Prices skyrocketed, competition was ferocious and this fever has been running hot through most of ’21. The two main drivers; low mortgage rates and historically low…

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