Atlanta Housing Market Check - Sept '23 vs '24 vs '25

"Torture the data, and it will admit to anything". Something the MSM and all of the click bait publications know well. Every day, it's continuous hand wringing and self created angst about real estate. Designed only to generate clicks, gone are the deep, well researched missives. Now the reports are tic toc level, AI generated, pablum. And just about all of it is wrong or misleading.  ALL real estate is local, VERY local.

There is no Atlanta housing crash coming, rates will not slide into the low 5% range, and home sellers and buyers will muddle through and adjust as needed. Below is an Atlanta housing market check, we compare the last three Septembers to get a feel for trends. Four major suburban counties and four main "metro" counties. Do this long enough like we have (35 yrs) and you already know what to expect. The Greater Atlanta housing market remains nice and boring; just like it should be.

North Atlanta Suburban Counties

There's nothing holding back growth around Atlanta. The main concern from folks is driving; how much mental punishment can you endure trying to move around the region? Here, we look at the fastest growing counties; all but Paulding are north of the metro area, Paulding is west. These counties are home to many first time buyers, new construction and homes on acreage; areas that are developing. Forsyth tends to have higher median prices and is highly desirable from a location standpoint, it enjoys the 400 corridor and NFulton spillover.

• Active listings are up in all counties
• New construction inventory plays a role, these counties are developing
• First time buyers were hardest hit by rate bumps
• CONTEXT - New and existing listing inventory caught up as buyers slowed

• Closings were down as they were everywhere
• '24-'24 shows activity stabilizing as markets adjust
• Hall and Forsyth showed increases from '24-'25
• CONTEXT - Buyers had less pressure, more time to choose, be selective

• Rate shock in '23 is clear, rate jumps froze the market
• '24 saw sellers regain some post pandemic momentum
• '24-'25 gets firmly into a "balanced" market 
• CONTEXT - 0-3 favors sellers / 3-6 balanced / 6+ favors buyers

• Despite the MSM screeching, median values remains positive
• The chaotic rise gave way to slow, controlled increases
• This is a desired rate, between 1% - 5% is ideal
• CONTEXT - Modest appreciation reflects a healthy market and maintains affordability

Metro Atlanta

We are always clear on the fact that everything is hyper local, this is especially true in cities. In this case, we're taking a 50K foot view so we get an overview of the trends. We're also adding Cobb and Gwinnett Counties to the mix. "Metro" Atlanta is defined in many ways; ITP v OTP, by zip code, by postal address, by geographic points, and more. Below is a BROAD look, it provides that overview which is needed to keep the micro market research in context. CONTEXT - a critical thing to remember, especially when the data pool might not be large enough to form a reliable opinion.

• Active listings are up in all counties, Fulton's size is clear
• Activity softened in "gentrifying" areas, presales of new/rebuilds slowed 
• Many sellers refused to acknowledge the balancing market
• CONTEXT - Numbers are up but far from worrisome

• Closings were down as they were everywhere
• Only Cobb 9/24 exceeded 5% change, otherwise the numbers were close to level
• These tend to be more experienced buyers, higher price points 
• CONTEXT - More experienced buyers tend to be patient, discerning, more focused 

• The unsustainable pace had to slow
• While statistically jarring, the market is rebounding from the same jarring pandemic drop
• Each of these counties is balanced and still slightly tilted to sellers 
• CONTEXT - 0-3 favors sellers / 3-6 balanced / 6+ favors buyers

• Into '25, vales are generally stable and move within the "level" range
• The bump in '24 was lost in Dekalb but it remains just over the '23 level
• A 1% - 5% appreciation rate is ideal, no indication of pricing weakness
• CONTEXT - The diverse nature of cities means everything is local, broad data shows stability

Atlanta Housing & What We Expect

Take EVERYTHING that the MSM says with a healthy dose of skepticism. Real estate is hyper local, they are looking for sensational headlines and clicks. When they talk Case-Shiller, or price per square foot, tune out. Case-Shiller data is months old and at a national level, price per square foot is HIGHLY unreliable and not considered appropriate by the pros. While no one knows what's ahead, we can provide expectations based upon decades of experience and data:

• Expect '26 to be more of the same, a balanced and measured market
• Rates (30yr fixed) will likely remain in the 6%-6.4% range. Of course that depends on credit, loan type and more
• Buyers should prep and buy the home they want when they see it
• Sellers should understand the shift, price it accurately and seller when the right deal arrives
• THIS INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO CHANGE. WORK ONLY WITH PROFESSIONALS! GOOGLE YOUR AGENT!

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