Is the Greater Atlanta Housing Market in Trouble?
Posted by Hank Miller on
Wake up! Is the Greater Atlanta housing market in trouble? These Q1'25 charts show a market that was active as Ole Red after he raided the garbage. This wasn't a local trend, Q1'25 across the nation was a snooze fest. Underwhelming; to be sure. Alarming; no, but we expected to see a return of the typical patterns.
Real estate should be dull and boring, the last few years made many of us forget that. The Greater Atlanta real estate market is now balanced, in most respects back to or headed toward pre-pandemic activity in all major categories. That's good, but that craziness of the last several years remains seared into our brains. Some of the charts below are stark; taken out of context they can lead to "oh chit" first impressions. No need for that - …
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“We’re like roaches; when it’s good we eat, when it’s bad we feast”. My long time friend Rob dropped that pearl a good 25 years ago. He successfully flipped homes around Atlanta before it was a “thing”, through the crash, and a good decade after. Flipping homes in Atlanta is for apex predators, it's the majors in every way. Rookies and HGTV Rangers are prey, few people understand just how difficult it is to be successful flipping homes. "Investors” are vilified, especially by the MSM who blame them for anything and everything that ails the housing market. It’s a disingenuous and lazy take, regularly taken out of context. As for "Wall Street", if they didn't gorge during the crash, we'd still be awash in listings and things would be much different. They…
this January. We in the field felt it, I was curious so took a look at the data…and it confirms what we thought. This is a stumble; this market will snap back, but we see a few reasons for this lackluster start.
If we subscribe to the "no substitute for experience" mantra, then a well seasoned agent is a home buyer's best asset. An experienced buyer's agent will actively look for signs of trouble in homes for sale. It's easy to follow "heart over head"; buyers tend to make an emotional commitment to a home. If it's strong enough, they can overlook issues that a sharp buyer's agent will note and bring up for discussion. Spotting signs of trouble in homes for sale is not learned watching videos and sitting behind a desk, it's learned in the field, getting dirty and educating the home buyers. Buying a home is a significant business transaction, treat it that way.
We're bullish on the spring '25 Atlanta real estate market. Now that the "interest rate" situation appears over and the election is done, this market can get back to being boring. Boring real estate is good, boring housing markets are safe and predictable. Significant challenges remain, but with the election over what appears to be an end to the "Fed Watch" on rates, things should settle down. One unknown is how agent compensation is received now that it is in effect. Q4 was the roll out, this spring will be a chance to see how that plays in a busy market.
I didn’t expect the answer Mr. X gave me, nor how fast he said, “I effed up, didn't use an agent”. At least he was honest in telling me; “I didn’t know what I didn’t know”. And I was honest in telling him; “now you do”. He described how a friend called and said a home in their community was coming on the market. They were told that the seller "already had interest and wasn't even going to list". This was one of the spots Mr. X wanted badly, so they jumped on it. Without a second thought, without contingencies, and without an agent. As he said, they now realize that a purchase of this magnitude should never be rushed or taken lightly. These are tough conversations and unfortunately, they happen often.
“Why didn’t mortgage rates drop when the Fed cut the discount rate?” A simple question with so many variables that even experts can’t agree. The focus seems to always be on “the Fed”; how does all of the economic news impact decisions made by the Federal Reserve? Through most of 2024, all eyes were on the Fed as everyone wondered if they would cut rates. They finally did in Sept and again in Nov…and mortgage rates, well, they remain about where they were. So, what happened? But, did anyone (other than the disingenuous media) really think rates were getting into the 5's or lower? No one here, nor anyone associated with legitimate real estate organizations, did.
The bite is severe and it’s going to get worse. HOA issues are on the rise, but the vitriol directed at them is not always justified. Homeowner associations exist to maintain property and community standards; to ensure that owners, their properties, and community property, meet agreed upon standards. Over the last several years, many HOAs have been financially stressed and that stress is being passed to residents. The catalyst was the Surfside Condo collapse, the mismanagement there was a clarion call to many.
