Attention media! Please stop; the greater Atlanta housing market was just fine in the 3rd Qtr of 2022. Stop the insentient blathering about impending real estate Armageddon, the data is not there. The Atlanta housing market in Q3 2022 did not melt down. In fact, the data is nothing like the media would love for everyone to believe. Best to pay attention to legitimate major issues, starting with the recession and inflation.
Atlanta Housing Market in Q3 2022
Let’s have a look at factual data. Here are four charts that display the residential activity in the six major Atlanta area counties considered "Greater Atlanta", the lower left corner of each chart shows the criteria. We examine list price, contract price and sold price. Each chart compares the Atlanta housing market in Q3 of 2022 to Q2 of 2022, then to each of the 3rd Qtrs of 2021,2020 and 2019. Let’s find the Atlanta real estate crash the media is howling about.
This chart shows the move towards normal which we all knew was underway. Quarter over quarter we see the following price changes:
- -1.2% for active listings
- -3.5% for contracted homes
- -3.4% for sold homes
Not unexpected and while dipping from Q2, these numbers are higher than every other previous quarter. Crash?
Year over year, still no sign of impending doom. From Q3 ‘21 to Q3 ’22 we see the following price changes:
- +10% for active listings
- +12.2% for contracted homes
- +13.3% for sold homes
Healthy bumps during a very crazy period but nothing like the national media was ranting about.
Two years back and even more growth From Q3 ‘20 to Q3 ’22 we see the following price changes:
- +22.6% for active listings
- +26.1% for contracted homes
- +32.8% for sold homes
This epitomizes the craziness that no one expected. This was the heart of the pandemic – also when the government handed out trillions and artificially held down mortgage rates.
Three years and the long view really highlights the escalation. From Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ’22 we see the following price changes:
- +28.1% for active listings
- +43.8% for contracted homes
- +46.7% for sold homes
There’s the Atlanta housing market in a simple chart. If we say Q3 ’19 to Q2 '20 was a “routine” market, we see that even if/when prices settle more, there’s a long, long way to go before dropping “crash” or “crisis” into the conversation.
Housing and the Economy
Chatter about an onslaught of inventory is also premature, a look at Atlanta housing inventory shows no signs of trouble. The economy is a mess and is causing damage. Plenty of blame from the states to Washington to global interests. Housing is of course impacted by banking but also by individual fiscal health and confidence; this is a cycle as it goes right back the basics of the "can we afford to do this" question. Jobs, inflation, mortgage rates, natural disasters, inventory, supply chain issues.....EVERYTHING impacts housing. However, it's an easy target for media attention, not as click worthy as "who will buy mortgage backed securities".
Nothing can be done about all that. Atlanta however, enjoys the advantage of appeal; people and businesses come here. The area has a consistency other areas don't. Looking 13 years back, we see that the Atlanta housing market is predictable and mundane, it will normalize. The pandemic nonsense will shake out, things will SETTLE, not crash. It's reasonable to expect prices to slide a bit more as demand lessens; that is the Fed's objective. Listen to the professionals in the field, solicit their expertise and ask questions. DO NOT fall for the gaslighting, click bait nonsense the media throws out there, it's not designed to inform but rather to get clicks and eyeballs.
This is all we do.We're in the field, in the data, working with "regular" clients, working with investors, appraising, consulting.....we're in the dirt with a finger on the pulse. Let us know how we can help.
The Hank Miller Team puts 30+ years of full time sales & appraisal experience to work for you. Act with complete confidence & make sound, decisive real estate decisions. 678-428-8276 and firstname.lastname@example.org Posted by Hank Miller on
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