A BULLISH Forecast for the Atlanta Spring '25 Real Estate Market

We're bullish on the spring '25 Atlanta real estate market. Now that the "interest rate" situation appears over and the election is done, this market can get back to being boring. Boring real estate is good, boring housing markets are safe and predictable. Significant challenges remain, but with the election over what appears to be an end to the "Fed Watch" on rates, things should settle down. One unknown is how agent compensation is received now that it is in effect. Q4 was the roll out, this spring will be a chance to see how that plays in a busy market. 

No crystal ball but 35 years of sales and appraisals provide a pretty good "gut" feel for things. We're all in, leaning on that Blue Bell powered gut and three years of Atlanta housing market data. Here's a look at the greater Atlanta real estate market quarter by quarter over the last three years...

Number of Listings

No massive dump of homes. No "zoom town" nonsense like some other markets.

• Predictable pattern for both new and existing
• Q1 25 will see the typical spring bounce
• Expect a similar rise into Q2, Q3 levels, then drop into Q4

Number of Sales

Interest rate shock also hit Atlanta home buyers, no surprise there.

• MSM disinformation about "sub 6% rates" froze many buyers in '24
• Q4 24 was the same/slightly better than Q4 23, not far off Q4 22
• Buyers have acclimated, they are done waiting and ready to go

Days on Market

No surprise, but still between the 30-60 day range of a strong market.

• Expect these to remain in the 30-60 day range
• Buyers have more time to look, less pressure, more options
• Sellers will acknowledge the market shift, eventually

Absorption Rate

A great illustration of the move from chaotic to controlled - still a very healthy market.

• Obvious and sharp drop when rates jumped
• More controlled drop since Q4 22 but the fatigue is clear 
• 15%-20% absorption rate is a balanced market, well over that

List Prices

List prices did not & WILL NOT drop, there is no reason for them to. 

• Sellers will not reduce due to compensation rules, they'll pocket any savings
• Normal pattern developing, start optimistic and go from there
• Accurate priced homes sell, others sit, and stales homes are not good

Selling Prices

Sale prices fluctuate but are not, and won't be, dropping.

• No drop from the pre rate bump chaos
• Contract prices often push to and over list, timing matters 
• Modest appreciation overall, expect 1% - 4% annually across Greater Atlanta  

So, Now What?

If you made it this far, you're engaged and a well informed buyer or seller. The single most important take away is do not listen to the main stream media. They are disingenuous at best, interested only in click bait headlines. That continues to be demonstrated in everything they do.

• Greater Atlanta is a strong housing market. The usual ebbs and flows exist but overall, this remains a solid area for home owners.
• EVERY micro market is different. This data examines the six top counties, data should be examined at the hyper local level.
• DO NOT FALL PREY TO THE "DON'T NEED AN AGENT" NONSENSE. This isn't buying a book, clients have no idea what it takes to make this look easy.
• Qualify and use a PROFESSIONAL agent. Mistakes here tend to be emotionally draining and expensive.
• UNDERSTAND both sides of the agent compensation rules. 
• Buying or selling a home is a BUSINESS TRANSACTION. USE YOUR HEAD.

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