Housing Inventory Climbs & Contracts Fall in North Atlanta

The north Atlanta housing market is cooling just a bit, this is supported both anecdotally and by the data. The pent up buyer demand is being offset by increasing inventory. It's still a seller's market; but it seems to be slowly trending toward balance as the year unfolds. The challenge of "easy to sell, hard to buy" remains; after a year of updating and enhancing homes, owners seemed content to stay put. But some may be getting restless because inventory is growing. Homes under contract in many Atlanta markets have been in decline (nationally as well), buyer demand easing...increasing inventory...maybe a move toward balance?

Below we look at a couple of sample markets north of Atlanta; Cobb County and the combination of Cherokee and Forsyth Counties. This is broad, the larger data pool allows for smoother results. This isn't an analysis of any micro market, we can of course do that but this isn't that. This is a flyby at 30K feet. Way down below we look at the six counties considered as "metro Atlanta"; consider that an edge of space flyby at Mach 2. All of this data is from Jan 1, 2021 to late June 2021.

Cobb County, GA

• This is a look at the entire market in Cobb County, it's broad but demonstrative
• Look at that jump in inventory, a 21.7%+ inventory bump over the 1st quarter and 32.8% more new listings
• The climb out began around March and has steadily continued

• Contracts accepted and closed sales show the inverse; this last period was the lowest of the year
• Contracts accepted down 8.4% from the 1st Qtr, sales up 4.2% including the low last data point
• In Cobb as a whole, this is a text book increase - peak - decline; a perfect arc

Forsyth & Cherokee Counties, GA

• Forsyth & Cherokee are two growing northern counties have a presence of new construction first time buyers
• They saw a 13.2% inventory jump and a 21% jump in new listings between Qtrs 1 and 2
• March and April increased, slight stumble in early May but rising again to finish

• Contracts accepted and closed sales was the lowest of the year the last period
• Contracts accepted peaked during March/Mid April, dropping fractionally then diving
• Closed sales were up 18.8% qtr to qtr but look at the last four periods, crazy drop

Greater Atlanta (Six Counties), GA

• Here the six counties noted are considered, the "Greater Atlanta" market is routinely debated
• Like the others, March starts the steady increase, inventory up 11.7% and new listings up 22.6%
• This is a geographically large, deep and diverse data pool; these trends are legitimate

• Like the others, the last reporting period are lows for both contracts accepted and closed sales
• Contracts accepted were down 3.3% while closed sales bumped 11.6%
• Look at the disparity between the high and low of contracts accepted, and the steady drop

So What's it All Mean?

Anecdotally and certainly supported by key data, it's reasonable to say that we are experiencing an increase in housing inventory around many metro Atlanta markets. Coincidentally, the media reports a drop in national home sales for the fourth consecutive month. We might be seeing buyer fatigue; those that don't have an urgent need to buy are becoming more patient. Locally around Atlanta:

• Sellers remain in control but the needle is sliding a bit toward the middle
• Buyers are becoming more patient and deliberate
• Sellers can no longer just overprice homes, accuracy matters
• Home prices are stabilizing, many markets are level
• Watch the rates - the Fed put a rate rise on the table

The foundational principles remain for both buyers and sellers. Stay informed, pay attention to the market and work with experienced agents. Buyers need to understand the trends in the micro market, down to the narrow area and price point. They also need to know how to structure offers that appeal to the specific seller. Sellers have to ignore the national news, even the regional news. Task the listing agent to analyze the micro market; PRICE THE HOME ACCURATELY as this will generate the most activity. Take nothing for granted, both buyers and sellers have to understand this market continues to be one of constant change - and it's not gradual.

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