The Atlanta Housing Market Shifted...on a Dime

Now the data is there to support what we knew months ago, the Atlanta housing market shifted. In some areas and price points, buyers and sellers got whiplash. Around the end of Jan and into Feb the signs were there, we felt it all through early spring and at the start of May we asked "Is the Atlanta Real Estate Market Shifting"? That was rhetorical, we just didn't have the data to support it because real estate lags. Well we do now. The charts below are the counties that most national organizations call the "Atlanta market". Astute and well educated readers of this blog (like you) know that all real estate is hyper local. However, we're not fighting that battle now. Here we'll look back to the beginning of the year in two week increments. For consistency the key market indicators are considered; number of listings, number of contracts and number of sales. Nothing about prices, we'll all stipulate that they are up; we're sticking to the salient market indicators on this post. The 13 major counties comprising the "Atlanta" market comprise the data pool - again, very broad but this is how "Atlanta" is viewed nationally.

Atlanta Real Estate Market Since Jan '22

Homes for sale indicates the number of active homes in this area available for purchase. Homes under contract indicates the number of homes that accepted a contract. Homes sold indicates the number of homes that successfully closed and transferred to the new owner. What do we see...

Key points:

• the number of listings significantly increased beginning later April.
• increases are typical in the spring but it's odd that Jan to mid April was flat.
• spring market here starts in later Fed, this later than rapid jump may be interest rate related.
• contracts fluctuated in a narrow range but began declining in May.
• sales also fluctuated but showed spikes until a significant drop through May.
• chatter indicates buyers terminating, issues that cannot be resolved, appraisal problems and buyers unable to close due to rising rates.
• while still a seller's market, the gap between listings, contracts and sales widened significantly in May and continues into June.

Focused just on contracts and closings, the impact of inflation and the interest rate increases becomes more obvious. Key points:

• As rates rose through Jan, contracts increased. They leveled off in Feb and began fluctuating through April. This was a combo of the spring market and panicked, rate sensitive buyers.
• Sales followed contracts, rising into March, peaking, then slightly falling into April.
• Contracts started to slip in May and by the end of the month into June, were at the lowest level in '22.
• Sales literally crashed the latter part of May into June, well below any other low of '22 to this point.
• Sales obviously follow contracts so June.....

What Now?

Real estate needs to be slowed down, but no one wants this. Another massive implosion isn't likely, the banks didn't facilitate the junk and fraudulent loans. However, those buyers that were reckless are at risk when it's time to sell. Unless inflation is controlled, also at risk  are the millions of homeowners living check to check struggling to keep up.

The Fed has no choice but to snap off the most extreme measures to get the brakes on this killer inflation. The lack of action from officials in DC is appalling but consistent; the answer seems to be ignore, then dismiss it as "transitory", then feel empathy and blame anyone noted in the talking points. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

The same fundamental principles apply to both buyers and sellers - a real estate transaction is a BUSINESS transaction. Work with seasoned professionals, understand the market, and understand the process.

Tags

• market conditions (28)