Is the Greater Atlanta Housing Market in Trouble?

Wake up! Is the Greater Atlanta housing market in trouble? These Q1'25 charts show a market that was active as Ole Red after he raided the garbage. This wasn't a local trend, Q1'25 across the nation was a snooze fest. Underwhelming; to be sure. Alarming; no, but we expected to see a return of the typical patterns.

Real estate should be dull and boring, the last few years made many of us forget that. The Greater Atlanta real estate market is now balanced, in most respects back to or headed toward pre-pandemic activity in all major categories. That's good, but that craziness of the last several years remains seared into our brains.  Some of the charts below are stark; taken out of context they can lead to "oh chit" first impressions. No need for that - context is key. The national market, and ours, are moving to normal. The post pandemic run was not normal. 

Atlanta Real Estate Market Inventory

• Active listings totaled 35.5K+- which is a +15.4% YOY bump 
• Listings are up, but below Q2-Q3'24 and about even with this period in '22
• Contracts and closings are down, contracts still higher than some other quarters
• Context - the market is settling, decent pendings, Q2 will be telling 

Days on Market for Atlanta Homes

• Slow quarter, fewer transactions, higher DOM
• Higher from previous Q1 but 45-120 days considered "balanced"
• Aspirational sellers, more measured buyers, may slide up into 2025 
• Context - not comparatively crazy, Q1 always runs high, Q2 will be a better measure

Atlanta Real Estate Absorption Levels

• In Q1 '25, homes closed at the lowest rate in three years
• Contracts increased from the last half of '24
• Q1'25 saw 33.69% of listings contract, 28.56% of listings close 
• Context - "balanced" is a 10%-20% closing rate, below 10% favors buyers and above 20% favors sellers

Atlanta Real Estate Home Prices

• Both contract and sale prices about even, list prices continue to rise 
• Ebbs and flows are seen, Q2'24 saw peak contract and sale prices
• Contract prices tend to indicate higher sale prices for Q2
• Context - Price increases seem to have been retained to this point

What to Expect...

Really? We barely know what to expect a day or two out...

Always drill down for the hyper local trends, but overall, the Greater Atlanta real estate market is firm. Real estate used to be boring and predictable, now it's a dandelion in a hurricane. This is what we know...

• Greater Atlanta is largely balanced. Some areas remain highly competitive with multiple offers, others see sellers waiting weeks for an offer .
• Many sellers refuse to accept the changed market. DOM, price reductions, and expired / withdrawn listings are increasing.
• Buyers must be savvy to area trends, work with mortgage pros, and understand the home buying process.
• It borders on stupid to say "rates will", no one knows. Timing the market is very difficult. 
• Embrace the chaos, focus on the mission and work only with full time seasoned professionals.
• We preach that last message - but the real estate industry is shifting to a "factory farming" approach - don't be a Costco chicken.
• In the meantime...never forget these words of wisdom - 

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