The last two years have been a blur, so much so that "pre-covid" might be considered prehistoric. A meteor ended the run last time, killer inflation is ending the run this time. The Fed has to get control of this rudderless economy and the withdrawals from handouts and the free spending are here. The insane advantage enjoyed by home sellers over the last few years is ending, time for sellers to remember how to list a home for sale. That said, let's not misconstrue what we're looking at (as of the end of June '22 anyway); the Atlanta real estate market is not crashing. What we are seeing, are signs of a return to normal. What we are hearing are cheers from the buyers - the one's left in the game anyway.

The Charts

Here's a look at key indicators for…

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The last few weeks in the Atlanta real estate market have buyers and sellers spinning, the last week or so has them jumping on Ozzy's Crazy Train. The market shifted due to continued historic inflation and housing around Atlanta hit the brakes. This isn't a crash; at this point it appears to be the market catching it's breath after two plus years of straight adrenaline. Now the Fed is tasked with being the economic hit man. They clearly should have acted back in the 4th Qtr of '21 when the administration was dismissing this as "transitory inflation"; something Secretary Yellen knew wasn't accurate and has since admitted.

Experienced agents understand how to handle market shifts, their stripes were earned during the last crash. These are not the same…

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Now the data is there to support what we knew months ago, the Atlanta housing market shifted. In some areas and price points, buyers and sellers got whiplash. Around the end of Jan and into Feb the signs were there, we felt it all through early spring and at the start of May we asked "Is the Atlanta Real Estate Market Shifting"? That was rhetorical, we just didn't have the data to support it because real estate lags. Well we do now. The charts below are the counties that most national organizations call the "Atlanta market". Astute and well educated readers of this blog (like you) know that all real estate is hyper local. However, we're not fighting that battle now. Here we'll look back to the beginning of the year in two week increments. For consistency…

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Appraising and being involved in real estate sales for over 30 years allows me to see epic "renovation" nightmares. The unfortunate side of this are the buyers who often expect their agent to flag issues. Will your agent spot renovation disasters? Well, that depends on if you properly qualified them, if they have the capacity to spot issues and whether they are more concerned with a commission or keeping you out of trouble.

This home was noted as "completely updated" and buyers of mine wanted to see it. The usual flags popped just off the desktop review but a base of knowledge is critical for buyers, looking at homes and seeing issues helps to better understand the process. This home however, was a graduate course in renovation disasters - and…

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The grizzled crusty veterans feel it and the questions are starting...is the Atlanta real estate market shifting? Has the move away from historic inventory shortages and home buyer frustration finally started? That argument can be made...and while the data lags by several weeks, the radar of many experienced agents is lit. The feeling in the field can't always be immediately confirmed but we're beginning to see the data evidence. It'll take a few more months as markets always tend to "feel" before the "proof"; that's just a challenge of the business. One thing that's not debated, the mortgage rate increases (with more promised) have been an ice bucket challenge to the market.

But first -it bears repeating that "the Atlanta market" is not a monolith; it…

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Early 2022 is in the rear view and we can now look back at the Greater Atlanta housing report for the first qtr of 2022. Best not to stare too long into the data, not many folks like what they see. Sure, sellers continue to hold the aces...until it's time to become a buyer. Sure, inventory has to increase as it can't get any tighter...yet it did. Sure, at least rates are great...oh wait. Well now that we're past lock downs, spring break and Easter, surely we'll get back into the "typical" cycles...we'll soon find out. Obviously, the point is that despite forecasting and prognostication, the only things we know are that rates are blasting higher and buyers continue to be pounded.

So let's have a basic and broad look at the great Atlanta housing report…

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April breaks over Georgia and the pencil necked geeks hike up their socks and tape up their glasses. It's time to answer the nagging question…did freddy blassy wrestlerhousing inventory in Atlanta increase during the first quarter of 2022? Well that answer is more than a yes/no binary option, context is needed and that’s best done by looking back a bit. The first quarter of any year around Atlanta tends to set up the second one. Traditionally, the months of May and June see the most new listings as the school cycle hits – graduating families sell and rising families buy. This year however, rocketing mortgage rates and other economic challenges may change that.

The charts below focus on key indicators; number of listings, number of sales, days on market and sale to list…

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There’s risk in everything. If we defer to the stats most people wouldn’t drive, fly, invest, gamble, play sports or do pretty much anything beyond sit in einstein definition of insanitythe basement wearing a mask, gloves and bicycle helmet waiting for instruction. Most folks look to mitigate risk but it’s a part of daily life. It’s also part of buying a home; successful home buyers embrace risk. "Measured risk” is a good way to summarize how buyers need to think right now as conventional tactics are simply not effective in this market (4/22).

Measured Risk

Measured risk is just that, it's not being reckless or stupid. It's understanding the current market and the influences at play. What are the trends, inventory, mortgage rates, forecasts? What are the winning buyers doing;…

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Want a sobering fun fact? A 1% mortgage rate increase cuts home buyer affordability between 10%-11%. In January, Timmy had a very nicetimmy and lassie $450K home in his sights but was annoyed with the price and having to compete with other buyers. He lost it. He then found two more solid fits at $465K and $445K, liked them and felt his offers were right on target. Losing both, he decided to wait for the "spring" market because he knows that prices will come down as inventory increases. While waiting, his mortgage rate went from 3.35% to 4.72%; a whiplash rise of 1.37% and one that forced Timmy's budget to decrease between $65K-$75K. Timmy waits; chin in hand with Lassie who is beyond pissed with him for blowing several good opportunities. "Surely the spring market will…

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climbing a rock wallIt’s hard to find a housing market not presently on fire, Atlanta is no different. Compared to a decade ago and the worst housing crisis ever, this market turn around improvement is among the tops in the country. The 2022 market could not be more different than the 2010-12 market...over 100K homes were on the market during the darkest days. The Atlanta real estate market explosion is due in large part to its broad appeal, size and vast selection of properties. The “Atlanta Real Estate market” is a misnomer; the area is akin to spilled glass of milk. With no natural boundaries, it sprawls over 8 to 16 counties depending on who sources the information. Each area is its own micro market but all contribute to the overall "Atlanta housing market".

The…

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