The last few weeks in the Atlanta real estate market have buyers and sellers spinning, the last week or so has them jumping on Ozzy's Crazy Train. The market shifted due to continued historic inflation and housing around Atlanta hit the brakes. This isn't a crash; at this point it appears to be the market catching it's breath after two plus years of straight adrenaline. Now the Fed is tasked with being the economic hit man. They clearly should have acted back in the 4th Qtr of '21 when the administration was dismissing this as "transitory inflation"; something Secretary Yellen knew wasn't accurate and has since admitted.
Experienced agents understand how to handle market shifts, their stripes were earned during the last crash. These are not the same conditions, but this smothering economic situation must quickly be sorted. A brief overview is best summarized in this video:
A Look at Broad Atlanta Area Housing Data
When we look at data, it's best to keep it simple. Key indicators of a market's health are the basic ones; how much, how long, how are prices. Let's have a look at the top six Atlanta area counties. Remember, this is broad so the zeroed in analysis might be different, but we've seen similar trends when we dive deep.
This is a great example of how inflation and the rate bumps played out. Inflation began to be a major issue in the 1st qtr, at the same time the Fed began acting. We see the expected early spring market bump in purchases. Note however, it about reaches the level of the last qtr of '21. As later spring opens as significant stumble: gas prices explode, inflation skyrockets and rate hikes continue. All the while, spring sellers toss homes on the market waiting for 20 contracts in the first day. Those days appear over.
Days on market reflects how long it takes to contract a home. We see the expected peak around the holidays and the spring market cuts that down. That chopping should continue but we see days on market turn north in May. The kick in the head in this chart is the months of inventory slope; errr rocket trajectory. Broadly, 0-3 months is a seller's market; 3-5 balanced and over 6 a buyer's market. We went from a strong seller's market to a balanced market in a month. This really isn't a bad thing, prefer to see that with less drama but there's nothing wrong with balance. We'll see how the next few weeks shakes out.
Usually the sole focus is on price, at this point the year over year trend remains positive. This chart clearly shows that sellers were fully exploiting their advantage; most homes were listing over the final sale price. As the numbers changed, buyers hit the brakes and became more measured - either by choice or because rate increases forced them. The last month or so shows sale prices leveling off while sellers continue to stretch, expect that to adjust. Sellers that fail to understand this shift will be sitting and wondering where the action is. It'll be with the sellers that listened to their experienced agents who explained what's going on.
No market operates in a vacuum. The current inflation disaster impacts everything; personal income, housing, stocks, food, retail and all other commodities. The Fed is not the villain, they are tasked with trying to slow this rolling dumpster fire and it's clear that it's not going to be easy. From a real estate perspective, we don't expect another crash. Adjustments to price and movement back to a balanced market, yes. Rough swings and some pain, yes. This has to happen, it would have been nice if it were gradual but that's not the case. Right now, more than ever, anyone in the real estate market needs to breath, be measured, define success and work with seasoned professionals. We're here for any questions....
We mentioned dedicated videos and data for buyers and sellers:
Selling a home now? A few things for you to know...
Buying a home now? A few things for you to know...
The Hank Miller Team puts 30+ years of full time sales & appraisal experience to work for you. Act with complete confidence & make sound, decisive real estate decisions. 678-428-8276 and firstname.lastname@example.org Posted by Hank Miller on
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