The last two years have been a blur, so much so that "pre-covid" might be considered prehistoric. A meteor ended the run last time, killer inflation is ending the run this time. The Fed has to get control of this rudderless economy and the withdrawals from handouts and the free spending are here. The insane advantage enjoyed by home sellers over the last few years is ending, time for sellers to remember how to list a home for sale. That said, let's not misconstrue what we're looking at (as of the end of June '22 anyway); the Atlanta real estate market is not crashing. What we are seeing, are signs of a return to normal. What we are hearing are cheers from the buyers - the one's left in the game anyway.

The Charts

Here's a look at key indicators for the six major metro Atlanta counties (Cherokee, Cobb, Dekalb, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett). No need to panic just yet, but time for all of the players, especially home sellers, to recognize the shift.

This is the best and most illustrative chart to explain the 2022 Atlanta area housing market. The arrows at the bottom are quarter over quarter, listings rise to catch the spring market...but buyers disappear as rising rates cools things down.

Focused on contracts and sales, the effect of interest rate bumps is clear. Note that "high to low" gap in contracts written in the last three months.

Some context - days on market are increasing, but they're still around 15 days which is below last year at this time. They will increase but we're not looking at months. Look at price ratios; they've been over 100% since January; and at pretty much 100% since early 2021. A correction is likely - and needed - but the bottom shouldn't fall out. And yes, everyone wants to know about prices. Need to wait; closing data lags a good 60-80 days, we'll know more over the next few weeks. So far, no big drama...

Back to Basics for Sellers

In most Atlanta areas the market continues the march toward balance. This isn't happening in lock step; two of the obvious variables include area and price range. What's going on in Johns Creek isn't the same as Hiram. That said, home sellers need to get back to the basics of being competitive. Some might need a refresher...and who better than yours truly for that...

A balanced market isn't a bad thing. The Covid and Post Covid years resulted in government handouts never before seen - and the withdrawals have been and will be, painful. All of that is a bit beyond our control, best we can do is guide everyone through the economic minefields laid out by our esteemed leaders. We've earned out Pathfinder badge over thirty plus years of full time sales and appraisals across all areas of the greater Atlanta market...and we've not lost a single client. 

Posted by Hank Miller on


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