Is the Greater Atlanta Housing Market in Trouble?
Posted by Hank Miller on
Wake up! Is the Greater Atlanta housing market in trouble? These Q1'25 charts show a market that was active as Ole Red after he raided the garbage. This wasn't a local trend, Q1'25 across the nation was a snooze fest. Underwhelming; to be sure. Alarming; no, but we expected to see a return of the typical patterns.
Real estate should be dull and boring, the last few years made many of us forget that. The Greater Atlanta real estate market is now balanced, in most respects back to or headed toward pre-pandemic activity in all major categories. That's good, but that craziness of the last several years remains seared into our brains. Some of the charts below are stark; taken out of context they can lead to "oh chit" first impressions. No need for that - …
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this January. We in the field felt it, I was curious so took a look at the data…and it confirms what we thought. This is a stumble; this market will snap back, but we see a few reasons for this lackluster start.
If we subscribe to the "no substitute for experience" mantra, then a well seasoned agent is a home buyer's best asset. An experienced buyer's agent will actively look for signs of trouble in homes for sale. It's easy to follow "heart over head"; buyers tend to make an emotional commitment to a home. If it's strong enough, they can overlook issues that a sharp buyer's agent will note and bring up for discussion. Spotting signs of trouble in homes for sale is not learned watching videos and sitting behind a desk, it's learned in the field, getting dirty and educating the home buyers. Buying a home is a significant business transaction, treat it that way.
occurred, values have not missed a beat. To be fair, the "metro Atlanta" region is far to large and diverse to paint with one brush. However, this data is useful in providing a good indicator of macro trends. Every submarket is different, as is every type and price point. Success is found by working with skilled professional agents, not some hobby hack agent with ten other side hustles. Below is a review of the six major metro counties and all price points.
estate industry experts"…all of them. Straight up gaslighting you. Telling you about dropping rates, dropping prices and increasing inventory. They're straight up BS'ing you.
About two years ago this month, Atlanta real estate and interest rates started a very complex relationship. The Fed slammed the brakes on low rates, and despite the initial wobble, the Atlanta real estate market found stability and firm ground. There was pain of course, many buyers were eliminated and the withdrawals from those low rates is still being felt. Two years in, we have enough data to evaluate the impact of the rate jump; the questions of “how much, how many, and how long” can be answered at this point. Comparing Feb '24 to Feb '23 and Feb '22 (six main metro counties); we see how hard those rate increases hit in '22 and how the market adjusted through '23.
As the early spring 2024 season opens around Greater Atlanta, some home buyers are still facing multiple offers. This is not the same universal craziness that we saw during the post pandemic days, but the current inventory of highly desirable homes remains fiercely competitive. Greater Atlanta saw a significant influx of post pandemic buyers coming to town with pockets full of cash. They were hungry to buy, and they did. Sellers could list pretty much anything at any price and it would go quickly at or over list. Those days are over...sorta.
refuse to close? What used to be infrequent is becoming more common; Sellers backing out of contracts. They might have second thoughts about giving up a low rate or realize that maybe it’s better to keep the home they have. If that happens, what can a Buyer do?