Is the South Atlanta Housing Market Weakening?
Posted by Hank Miller on
Parts of the south Atlanta real estate market are showing signs of weakness, a general lethargy. While the broad region is largely stable, several areas of the metro area are flashing yellow. These areas are mainly south of I-20 where a significant amount of post pandemic activity was experienced. Similar traits were noted during the '08-'12 bubble-crash, increased attention and then giving back the gains made. As then, we see the influences of builders, ownership programs, and speculators possibly at play. This is a different housing market, but patterns are developing which should be watched.
These maps from ResiClub focus on those markets (by zip) south of I-20. For reference, the FMLS zip code map below provides a general idea of layout.…
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"Torture the data, and it will admit to anything". Something the MSM and all of the click bait publications know well. Every day, it's continuous hand wringing and self created angst about real estate. Designed only to generate clicks, gone are the deep, well researched missives. Now the reports are tic toc level, AI generated, pablum. And just about all of it is wrong or misleading. ALL real estate is local, VERY local.
Home sellers can be a prickly group. This is especially true when markets are shifting, like now as sellers lose the edge and the market balances (mid-summer ’25). The trendy label is "accidental landlord", but an accidental landlord is nothing more than a stubborn seller. They don't listen, they know best. Their home is the “exception”; they have the one that all the buyers will flock to. Data? Meh, that’s for the others, not them. They know what the house is worth, just ask them. They are "experts".
“We’re like roaches; when it’s good we eat, when it’s bad we feast”. My long time friend Rob dropped that pearl a good 25 years ago. He successfully flipped homes around Atlanta before it was a “thing”, through the crash, and a good decade after. Flipping homes in Atlanta is for apex predators, it's the majors in every way. Rookies and HGTV Rangers are prey, few people understand just how difficult it is to be successful flipping homes. "Investors” are vilified, especially by the MSM who blame them for anything and everything that ails the housing market. It’s a disingenuous and lazy take, regularly taken out of context. As for "Wall Street", if they didn't gorge during the crash, we'd still be awash in listings and things would be much different. They…
this January. We in the field felt it, I was curious so took a look at the data…and it confirms what we thought. This is a stumble; this market will snap back, but we see a few reasons for this lackluster start.
If we subscribe to the "no substitute for experience" mantra, then a well seasoned agent is a home buyer's best asset. An experienced buyer's agent will actively look for signs of trouble in homes for sale. It's easy to follow "heart over head"; buyers tend to make an emotional commitment to a home. If it's strong enough, they can overlook issues that a sharp buyer's agent will note and bring up for discussion. Spotting signs of trouble in homes for sale is not learned watching videos and sitting behind a desk, it's learned in the field, getting dirty and educating the home buyers. Buying a home is a significant business transaction, treat it that way.
I didn’t expect the answer Mr. X gave me, nor how fast he said, “I effed up, didn't use an agent”. At least he was honest in telling me; “I didn’t know what I didn’t know”. And I was honest in telling him; “now you do”. He described how a friend called and said a home in their community was coming on the market. They were told that the seller "already had interest and wasn't even going to list". This was one of the spots Mr. X wanted badly, so they jumped on it. Without a second thought, without contingencies, and without an agent. As he said, they now realize that a purchase of this magnitude should never be rushed or taken lightly. These are tough conversations and unfortunately, they happen often.
The bite is severe and it’s going to get worse. HOA issues are on the rise, but the vitriol directed at them is not always justified. Homeowner associations exist to maintain property and community standards; to ensure that owners, their properties, and community property, meet agreed upon standards. Over the last several years, many HOAs have been financially stressed and that stress is being passed to residents. The catalyst was the Surfside Condo collapse, the mismanagement there was a clarion call to many.