Atlanta Real Estate Two Years After the Interest Rate Jump
Posted by Hank Miller on
About two years ago this month, Atlanta real estate and interest rates started a very complex relationship. The Fed slammed the brakes on low rates, and despite the initial wobble, the Atlanta real estate market found stability and firm ground. There was pain of course, many buyers were eliminated and the withdrawals from those low rates is still being felt. Two years in, we have enough data to evaluate the impact of the rate jump; the questions of “how much, how many, and how long” can be answered at this point. Comparing Feb '24 to Feb '23 and Feb '22 (six main metro counties); we see how hard those rate increases hit in '22 and how the market adjusted through '23.
Home Prices in Atlanta Continue to Rise
Median prices fluctuate as they do in every…
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As the early spring 2024 season opens around Greater Atlanta, some home buyers are still facing multiple offers. This is not the same universal craziness that we saw during the post pandemic days, but the current inventory of highly desirable homes remains fiercely competitive. Greater Atlanta saw a significant influx of post pandemic buyers coming to town with pockets full of cash. They were hungry to buy, and they did. Sellers could list pretty much anything at any price and it would go quickly at or over list. Those days are over...sorta.
What is the forecast for the Atlanta real estate market in 2024? Contrary to most every regional and national prognosticator, the only legitimate answer is "it depends". It's critical to understand prior markets, look for patterns, and temper that with current economic conditions. The idea that any "housing" or "economic expert" can authoritatively declare where this market is headed over the year is absurd. How can variables like local and national economic conditions, consumer debt, consumer confidence, the Fed, global supply chains, wars and conflict and a hundred other wild cards be corralled? They cannot.
The first half of the Atlanta 2023 housing market shared many similarities with the first half of the 2022 real estate market. Despite continuous caterwauling from the MSM about a crash, home prices around greater Atlanta haven't really moved from a year ago. In fact, some market are ahead of those record highs of '22. Clearly it's not the same market, but the interest rate shock seems to be accounted for.
national media, this market is not crashing and there is no reason to expect it will. A May 2022 to May 2023 look at key Atlanta housing market indicators demonstrates what we professionals saw; an adjustment to rising rates followed by a recovery.
advantageous, a limited housing supply led to a grueling home buying experience. Atlanta area home sellers on the other hand, enjoyed historical sway and leverage. They could effectively name their price and state the conditions; buyers were willing to comply. Things changed fast, midway through ’22 rampant inflation and the Fed slammed on the brakes. Things quieted and the stage was set for the spring 2023 housing market in Atlanta.
Selling your home by owner, also known as For Sale By Owner (FSBO), is appealing to some in this exceptionally robust market. Not dealing with agents is nice, but can money be saved selling a home by owner? About 7% of homes nationally sold without a listing agent, of those over half were between parties that already had the transaction arranged. Data shows that around 25% of FSBOs don't sell; and for those that do, they sell between 6%-26% less than agent assisted homes. Consider…
As we enter the final weeks of 2022, the national real estate market is catching its breath. Some markets remain in flux, others have started to level off already. Atlanta is one of the steady ones, and housing inventory in Atlanta will not jump in 2023. This is due to several reasons and while 2023 will likely continue the post pandemic “malaise”, the Greater Atlanta housing market remains one of the most stable in the nation. Greater Atlanta did not “zoom” up in value and activity. It went bonkers to be sure, but not to a completely unrealistic point. The region has been growing consistently over the last decade and while the bump was experienced, there is solid footing which will keep this market stable.
Well add this to the list of “No chit Sherlock” observations coming out of the last two years. Seems that just over 70% of recent homebuyers have buyer’s remorse. In Feb '21 we noted that 44% of homebuyers had buyer's remorse, these new stats are bonkers. This number is a bit of a surprise and the reasons have to do with price but also with just about every other aspect of the buyer's transactions. Put politely, these buyers are now in a position that no one wants to be in…and they have only themselves to blame. Sure, the market over ’21 and the first part of ’22 was bonkers, competition was fierce. But how many of these mournful buyers made the cardinal sin of not qualifying their agent? Most of them.