A BULLISH Forecast for the Atlanta Spring '25 Real Estate Market
Posted by Hank Miller on
We're bullish on the spring '25 Atlanta real estate market. Now that the "interest rate" situation appears over and the election is done, this market can get back to being boring. Boring real estate is good, boring housing markets are safe and predictable. Significant challenges remain, but with the election over what appears to be an end to the "Fed Watch" on rates, things should settle down. One unknown is how agent compensation is received now that it is in effect. Q4 was the roll out, this spring will be a chance to see how that plays in a busy market.
No crystal ball but 35 years of sales and appraisals provide a pretty good "gut" feel for things. We're all in, leaning on that Blue Bell powered gut and three years of Atlanta housing market data.…
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“Why didn’t mortgage rates drop when the Fed cut the discount rate?” A simple question with so many variables that even experts can’t agree. The focus seems to always be on “the Fed”; how does all of the economic news impact decisions made by the Federal Reserve? Through most of 2024, all eyes were on the Fed as everyone wondered if they would cut rates. They finally did in Sept and again in Nov…and mortgage rates, well, they remain about where they were. So, what happened? But, did anyone (other than the disingenuous media) really think rates were getting into the 5's or lower? No one here, nor anyone associated with legitimate real estate organizations, did.
occurred, values have not missed a beat. To be fair, the "metro Atlanta" region is far to large and diverse to paint with one brush. However, this data is useful in providing a good indicator of macro trends. Every submarket is different, as is every type and price point. Success is found by working with skilled professional agents, not some hobby hack agent with ten other side hustles. Below is a review of the six major metro counties and all price points.
estate industry experts"…all of them. Straight up gaslighting you. Telling you about dropping rates, dropping prices and increasing inventory. They're straight up BS'ing you.
About two years ago this month, Atlanta real estate and interest rates started a very complex relationship. The Fed slammed the brakes on low rates, and despite the initial wobble, the Atlanta real estate market found stability and firm ground. There was pain of course, many buyers were eliminated and the withdrawals from those low rates is still being felt. Two years in, we have enough data to evaluate the impact of the rate jump; the questions of “how much, how many, and how long” can be answered at this point. Comparing Feb '24 to Feb '23 and Feb '22 (six main metro counties); we see how hard those rate increases hit in '22 and how the market adjusted through '23.
As the early spring 2024 season opens around Greater Atlanta, some home buyers are still facing multiple offers. This is not the same universal craziness that we saw during the post pandemic days, but the current inventory of highly desirable homes remains fiercely competitive. Greater Atlanta saw a significant influx of post pandemic buyers coming to town with pockets full of cash. They were hungry to buy, and they did. Sellers could list pretty much anything at any price and it would go quickly at or over list. Those days are over...sorta.
What is the forecast for the Atlanta real estate market in 2024? Contrary to most every regional and national prognosticator, the only legitimate answer is "it depends". It's critical to understand prior markets, look for patterns, and temper that with current economic conditions. The idea that any "housing" or "economic expert" can authoritatively declare where this market is headed over the year is absurd. How can variables like local and national economic conditions, consumer debt, consumer confidence, the Fed, global supply chains, wars and conflict and a hundred other wild cards be corralled? They cannot.
