The Seller Doesn't Need to Sell...then why is the home listed?
Posted by Hank Miller on
The pandemic induced hysteria around the Atlanta housing market is rapidly giving way to balance and with it, the return of a special type of nonsense. Some home sellers take things personal and can be reluctant to acknowledge the changing 
market; none of that applies to their home. Data clearly shows their home is aspirationally priced, buyers confirm it, and it sits idle. When challenged the agent and/or buyer drop the classic line..."the seller doesn't need to sell".
Doesn't need to sell is one of the stupidest things anyone in real estate will say or hear. It's illogical and contrary; why is the home is listed? That answer is always along the lines of "that's what they want, that's what they have in it, or that's what they need". Oh OK.
The…
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Attention media! Please stop; the greater Atlanta housing market was just fine in the 3rd Qtr of 2022. Stop the insentient blathering about impending real estate Armageddon, the data is not there. The Atlanta housing market in Q3 2022 did not melt down. In fact, the data is nothing like the media would love for everyone to believe. Best to pay attention to legitimate major issues, starting with the recession and inflation.
of 2022 will show the pull back and move toward a balanced market, but as with everything real estate related, the devil is in the details. At the macro level, buyer activity slowed, days on market increased, months of inventory increased and the general balance of power is moving from sellers to a neutral position. On a granular level however, how homes are presented for sale makes all the difference.
emanating from the media, time was given for patterns to develop? What if the Atlanta real estate market isn’t going to crash? What if this is a period of adjustment and a return to normal? How effective is anticipating stock performance by watching the ticker and reacting every few minutes? What if we back out, let the situation develop and look for past patterns to anticipate future trends? Yeah, what ifs are risky and there are many variables. However when time is taken to consider the data, real estate falls into pretty consistent patterns.
The great Atlanta real estate market adjustment of 2022 is upon us. As everything shifts, the main players are whispering around the water cooler...will low appraisals be a problem now? Probably not a bad question as the changes in quarter 2 of 2022 were dramatic. As the Fed fights rampant inflation, buyers are faced with dramatic rate increases and sellers with a comparative lack of activity. Lenders and appraisers are also impacted; both industries are circling the wagons just a bit tighter as everyone waits for this market to settle.
killer inflation is ending the run this time. The Fed has to get control of this rudderless economy and the withdrawals from handouts and the free spending are here. The insane advantage enjoyed by home sellers over the last few years is ending, time for sellers to remember how to list a home for sale. That said, let's not misconstrue what we're looking at (as of the end of June '22 anyway); the Atlanta real estate market is not crashing. What we are seeing, are signs of a return to normal. What we are hearing are cheers from the buyers - the one's left in the game anyway.
Crazy Train. The market shifted due to continued historic inflation and housing around Atlanta hit the brakes. This isn't a crash; at this point it appears to be the market catching it's breath after two plus years of straight adrenaline. Now the Fed is tasked with being the economic hit man. They clearly should have acted back in the 4th Qtr of '21 when the administration was dismissing this as "transitory inflation"; something Secretary Yellen knew wasn't accurate and has since admitted.
the signs were there, we felt it all through early spring and at the start of May we asked "Is the Atlanta Real Estate Market Shifting"? That was rhetorical, we just didn't have the data to support it because real estate lags. Well we do now. The charts below are the counties that most national organizations call the "Atlanta market". Astute and well educated readers of this blog (like you) know that all real estate is hyper local. However, we're not fighting that battle now. Here we'll look back to the beginning of the year in two week increments. For consistency…
from historic inventory shortages and home buyer frustration finally started? That argument can be made...and while the data lags by several weeks, the radar of many experienced agents is lit. The feeling in the field can't always be immediately confirmed but we're beginning to see the data evidence. It'll take a few more months as markets always tend to "feel" before the "proof"; that's just a challenge of the business. One thing that's not debated, the mortgage rate increases (with more promised) have been an ice bucket challenge to the market.
housing report for the first qtr of 2022. Best not to stare too long into the data, not many folks like what they see. Sure, sellers continue to hold the aces...until it's time to become a buyer. Sure, inventory has to increase as it can't get any tighter...yet it did. Sure, at least rates are great...oh wait. Well now that we're past lock downs, spring break and Easter, surely we'll get back into the "typical" cycles...we'll soon find out. Obviously, the point is that despite forecasting and prognostication, the only things we know are that rates are blasting higher and buyers continue to be pounded.