Market trends and housing reports around North Atlanta

The curtain fell on 2021 and the housing market report for greater Atlanta can be succinctly summed up; crazy. In addition the last quarter being traditionally slow, the big influences on the market were inflation levels unseen in 40 yrs, supply chain shortages, labor issues and of course the rise and run of the omicron covid variant. That is best described as an endemic; like the flu it's evident that the covid situation isn't going anywhere. So despite all of that, we did have a 4th qtr housing market report for Atlanta and it read much the same as the rest of 2021; record low inventory and frustrated buyers.  What lies ahead for 2022? Well we know rising rates; as this is written in mid Jan, rates are already up from a few weeks ago and they will…

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It’s with a MASSIVE dose of “we think” that we offer our latest opinions (12/16/21) for the first quarter of the 2022 North Atlanta real estate market. It's not a rosy outlook; expect home buyer frustration to increase in 2022. Rates are likely to increase as the Fed just responded to the record high inflation, planning at least three rate bumps for 2022. The prognosticators are out there already making bold claims; you can find the overt optimists and you can find the dark pessimists. So what's in store for home buyers and sellers that have to make a move this spring? Well given this environment, we’re not going to look much past the first quarter or so. Buyers will again be challenged and sellers will reap the reward…until they become buyers. As usual,…

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Trying to predict any market; stock, bond, mortgage, real estate or other type is a measured guess at best. Toss in a global pandemic, global supply chain issues along with global inflation and the challenge is exacerbated. But in this maelstrom comes a confident 2022 housing market forecast from Goldman Sachs; they predict home prices will appreciate 16% during 2022.

In 2019 the housing market found its legs and combined with a historically strong economy and low rates, the housing market caught fire. The pandemic slammed on the brakes, but by mid ’20 things inexplicably exploded. Prices skyrocketed, competition was ferocious and this fever has been running hot through most of ’21. The two main drivers; low mortgage rates and historically low…

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Summer is done and we've turned the corner into the last quarter of the 2021 Atlanta area real estate market. From the opening bell of 2020, yes, back almost two years, it's been a bonkers ride. The election, covid, new administration, covid, inflation, covid and continuing supply chain disasters mixed into "typical" real estate market dynamics. Who knows what lies ahead? No one. All that said, what did the Atlanta area real estate market look like over the third quarter of 2021?  

The need to dig deep into the data cannot be overemphasized; things look one way when viewed as a block but often look an entirely different way when boiled down into micro markets. When that’s done, buyers and sellers will see that looking at data broadly by county, city or…

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Interpreting real estate stats is a nuanced business; like all things statistical, the devil is in the details. We'll keep the devil at bay here as we look at less common indicators of housing market strength north and west of Atlanta. How does list price compare to sale price? How many homes are selling and how long does it take? Alpharetta, Roswell, Johns Creek and Cumming are featured to the north. Marietta, Woodstock, Canton and Kennesaw are featured to the west-northwest. City designation is the only criteria, this is broad and if we drilled down, we'd likely see different price points act differently. We cover from January 2020 to present and look at sale to list price ratio, number of closed sales and average days on market. Scroll over the charts…

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Home prices continue to push higher than any time in history; yet real estate appraisals continue to be a problem. Low appraisals despite record appreciation? How is this possible with next to no low inventory, ravenous buyers and bidding wars? As it was just over a decade ago, the disconnect between appraisers, agents and the public remains. This time the economic conditions are different and the public has more exposure to data but the appraisal process remains a mystery.

The Role of the Appraiser

The appraiser represents the buyer’s lender; they do not work for the buyer, the seller or any agent. Their job is to ensure that if the lender has to foreclose on the property, the amount they lent to the buyer can be recovered. Appraisers follow…

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Few will argue that the last 18-24 months in the real estate world have been bonkers (mid '19 to mid '21). Prices skyrocketed and inventory disappeared; no one saw this coming. However, few seem to abide by the three rules of real estate: location-location-location. National housing market reports from outlets like Case-Shiller, Redfin and Zillow are taken literally; they shouldn't be. Rapid appreciation is exactly what everyone wants, so for now, buyers and sellers line up and spew Zillow stats like gospel. Except it doesn't work that way. Real estate isn't a share of Amazon; every home is unique physically and locationally. National reports are meaningless; state reports are meaningless; local reports get a little closer but are still largely dubious.…

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The current Atlanta area real estate market is about as fluid as we’ve seen over the last thirty years. The need to dig deep into the data cannot be overemphasized; things look one way when viewed as a block but often look an entirely different way when boiled down into micro markets. When that’s done, buyers and sellers will see that looking at data broadly by county, city or zip code is often different when looking at it narrowed by price range, school district or physical characteristics.

1st QTR 2021 vs 2nd QTR 2021

“Shifting Markets” are routinely talked about, comparing the first and second quarters of the 2021 Atlanta area real estate market is a text book demonstration of that. The posts below were written as it happened; we saw it…

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The north Atlanta housing market is cooling just a bit, this is supported both anecdotally and by the data. The pent up buyer demand is being offset by increasing inventory. It's still a seller's market; but it seems to be slowly trending toward balance as the year unfolds. The challenge of "easy to sell, hard to buy" remains; after a year of updating and enhancing homes, owners seemed content to stay put. But some may be getting restless because inventory is growing. Homes under contract in many Atlanta markets have been in decline (nationally as well), buyer demand easing...increasing inventory...maybe a move toward balance?

Below we look at a couple of sample markets north of Atlanta; Cobb County and the combination of Cherokee and Forsyth Counties.…

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